>Who’s who in the Good Judgment Project
The Good Judgment research team is headquartered at the University of Pennsylvania and the University of California Berkeley. The project is led by psychologists Philip Tetlock, author of the award-winning Expert Political Judgment, Barbara Mellers, an expert on judgment and decision-making, and Don Moore, an expert (in a good way) on overconfidence. Other team members (see sidebar at left) have backgrounds and professional experience in psychology, economics, statistics, interface design, international relations, and computer science.
We are one of five teams competing in the Aggregative Contingent Estimation (ACE) Program, sponsored by IARPA (the U.S. Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity). The ACE Program aims “to dramatically enhance the accuracy, precision, and timeliness of forecasts for a broad range of event types, through the development of advanced techniques that elicit, weight, and combine the judgments of many intelligence analysts.”
The project is unclassified: our results will be published in traditional scholarly and scientific journals, and will be available to the general public.