The Good Judgment Project
Want to test your forecasting skills?
Although the current tournament has ended, a new public forecasting tournament will begin this fall. This tournament is being organized by Good Judgment, Inc., a commercial spinoff of the Good Judgment Project.
Click here to sign up

The Good Judgment Project is a four-year research study organized as part of a government-sponsored forecasting tournament. Thousands of people around the world predict global events. Their collective forecasts are surprisingly accurate.

Read more about the IARPA Ace Project


"If I were President Obama or John Kerry, Iā€™d want the [Good Judgment Project] predictions on my desk."

ā€” David Brooks, The New York Times

"With some confidence, we can predict that another landmark of applied social science will soon be reached."

ā€” Daniel Kahneman, Nobel laureate and author of "Thinking Fast and Slow," writing about Phil Tetlock and the Good Judgment Project on

"... the human dimension in forecasting is again taking center stage."

ā€” Michael Peck, writing about IARPA's ACE program and forecasting tournament

Team Leaders
Phil Tetlock

Tetlock is the Leonore Annenberg University Professor in Democracy and Citizenship at the University of Pennsylvania, where he holds appointments in the Department of Psychology and the Management Department of the Wharton School of Business. He is the author of the award-winning Expert Political Judgment.
Barb Mellers

Mellers is the I. George Heyman University Professor at the University of Pennsylvania, where she holds appointments in the Department of Psychology and the Marketing Department of the Wharton School of Business. She is a past President of the Society of Judgment and Decision Making and the author of over 100 books and articles.
Don Moore

Moore is an Associate Professor in the Management of Organizations group at UC-Berkeley's Haas School of Business. He is an expert on overconfidence and co-author (with Max Bazerman) of the popular text Judgment in Managerial Decision Making.

Home   the Project   the Team   Project Blog

Good Judgment, LLC
Produced and maintained by DWSCI