GJP Logo

The Good Judgment Project

Become a part of the Good Judgment Project


  HARNESSING THE WISDOM OF THE CROWD TO FORECAST WORLD EVENTS

The Good Judgment Project is a four-year research study organized as part of a government-sponsored forecasting tournament. Thousands of people around the world predict global events. Their collective forecasts are surprisingly accurate.

Read more about the IARPA Ace Project


Press
 

"If I were President Obama or John Kerry, Iā€™d want the [Good Judgment Project] predictions on my desk."

ā€” David Brooks, The New York Times

"With some confidence, we can predict that another landmark of applied social science will soon be reached."

ā€” Daniel Kahneman, Nobel laureate and author of "Thinking Fast and Slow," writing about Phil Tetlock and the Good Judgment Project on edge.org

"... the human dimension in forecasting is again taking center stage."

ā€” Michael Peck, writing about IARPA's ACE program and forecasting tournament

 
 
Team Leaders
Phil Tetlock
Co-Leader


Tetlock is the Leonore Annenberg University Professor in Democracy and Citizenship at the University of Pennsylvania, where he holds appointments in the Department of Psychology and the Management Department of the Wharton School of Business. He is the author of the award-winning Expert Political Judgment.
Barb Mellers
Co-Leader


Mellers is the I. George Heyman University Professor at the University of Pennsylvania, where she holds appointments in the Department of Psychology and the Marketing Department of the Wharton School of Business. She is a past President of the Society of Judgment and Decision Making and the author of over 100 books and articles.
Don Moore
Co-Leader


Moore is an Associate Professor in the Management of Organizations group at UC-Berkeley's Haas School of Business. He is an expert on overconfidence and co-author (with Max Bazerman) of the popular text Judgment in Managerial Decision Making.


Home   the Project   the Team   Project Blog    Join GJP

Good Judgment, LLC